![]() The CDC on May 11 released its " Preliminary Estimate of Excess Mortality During the COVID-19 Outbreak - New York City, March 11–May 2, 2020" in which it calculated an estimate of actual COVID-19 deaths in NYC by analyzing the "excess deaths" (defined as "the number of deaths above expected seasonal baseline levels, regardless of the reported cause of death") and found that, in addition to the confirmed and probable deaths reported by the city, there were an estimated 5,293 more deaths to be attributed. ![]() Actual Deaths (23,000: almost twice the number of confirmed deaths)Īs of May 1, New York City reported 13,156 confirmed deaths and 5,126 probable deaths (deaths with COVID-19 on the death certificate but no laboratory test performed), for a total of 18,282 deaths. The number of confirmed cases reported as of May 1 by New York City was 166,883, more than 10 times less. With a population of 8,398,748 people in NYC, this percentage would indicate that 1,671,351 people had been infected with SARS-CoV-2 and had recovered as of May 1 in New York City. 19.9% of the population of New York City had COVID-19 antibodies. The study provides a breakdown by county, race (White 7%, Asian 11.1%, multi/none/other 14.4%, Black 17.4%, Latino/Hispanic 25.4%), and age, among other variables. The survey developed a baseline infection rate by testing 15,103 people at grocery stores and community centers across the state over the preceding two weeks. New York State conducted an antibody testing study, showing that 12.3% of the population in the state had COVID-19 antibodies as of May 1, 2020. Actual Cases (1.7 million: 10 times the number of confirmed cases) These findings can be valid for New York City and not necessarily for other places (suburban or rural areas, other countries, etc.), but they represent the best estimates to date given the co-occurrence of these 3 studies. Combining these 3 sources together we can derive the most accurate estimate to date on the mortality rate for COVID-19, as well as the mortality rate by age group and underlying condition. Worldometer has analyzed the data provided by New York City, the New York State antibody study, and the excess deaths analysis by the CDC. ![]() Fatality Rate based on New York City Actual Cases and Deaths If we base our calculation (deaths / cases) on the number of reported cases (rather than on the actual ones), we will greatly overestimate the fatality rate. The number of deaths also tends to be underestimated, as some patients are not hospitalized and not tested. The number of actual cases is therefore estimated to be at several multiples above the number of reported cases. The number of actual deaths related to the closed cases examined above.Ĭonsidering that a large number of cases are asymptomatic (or present with very mild symptoms) and that testing has not been performed on the entire population, only a fraction of the SARS-CoV-2 infected population is detected, confirmed through a laboratory test, and officially reported as a COVID-19 case.We need to know the number of actual cases (not merely the reported ones, which are typically only a small portion of the actual ones) that have already had an outcome (positive or negative: recovery or death), not the current cases that still have to resolve (the case sample shall contain zero active cases and include only "closed" cases). When calculating the mortality rate, we need: See also: Death Rate by Age and Sex of COVID-19 patients
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